Project Risk Management

The RiskyProject workflow includes four major steps, as shown on the diagram. Each step includes a number of activities and each activity is associated with at least one RiskyProject view.

The four major steps of the RiskyProject workflow are:

1)       Create a baseline (original) project schedule, which includes risks and uncertainties;

2)       Perform simulations,

3)       Analyze results, and

4)       Track project performance.

During the course of the project, actual performance is monitored and tracking information is updated. All process can be repeated again as soon as new data about project performance become available.

RiskyProject allows you to compare baseline schedule with the calculated schedule that takes into account risks, uncertainties and actual project performance.

Project Schedule

Task scheduling in RiskyProject is very similar to the process project managers use with traditional scheduling software and methodologies. The project schedule is based on tasks and is presented as a Gantt chart. The project manager specifies input project parameters, such as: duration, start and finish time, cost, etc., that are associated with a “best case scenario” outcome. You can use project schedule created in Microsoft® Project, Primavera®, or other project management for the risk analysis in RiskyProject.

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Resources and Costs

Project managers can then define work or material resources and assign them to tasks. There are two types of costs in RiskyProject: Fixed costs, which are associated with tasks, and variable costs, which are associated with resources. Costs associated with resources are calculated based on rate, units assigned, and task duration.

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Risk Breakdown Structure

Creating a Risk List is an important step in RiskyProject. Risks can be assigned to a task or a resource. The Risk List can be local  (for each task or resource), or global (for all tasks and resource in the project). Each risk has a number of properties. Risks are defined by name, chance of occurrence, and outcome (e.g. increase cost, cancel project, etc.). Risks can also be defined by when they are most likely to occur using distribution types and the entering the points, as a percentage of task completion, when the risk starts and finishes.

RiskyProject allows you to define uncertainties and task duration, cost, start and finish times, as well as lag time between predecessors and successor using statistical distribution. To add uncertainties you enter low, base, and high estimates for a variable (e.g. duration). You can assign Uniform, Triangular, Normal, Lognormal, Beta, BetaPert, Gamma, and other distributions to this variable.

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Project Summary

The Project Summary provides two different types of information. At the top, you can quickly view general information about the project, name, manager, description etc. The bottom section shows the results of the calculations without taking into account the project baseline. This information includes ranges for the project:

·         cost,

·         duration, and

·         project finish time.

Interactive charts are also provided, which allow you to determine the chance the project will be completed on certain date, will have a certain duration, and will have a certain final cost. The project Summary also provides the overall project success rate, or chance that project will be not canceled.

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Result Gantt

The Result Gantt chart provides an easy way to view the low and high ranges for start and finish dates for each task. It also allows you to view the baseline and calculated project schedules side by side. This allows you to quickly determine how uncertainties affect each particular task.

This is also an opportunity to perform a reality check. With the Result Gantt chart, you can easily see how the project schedule slips due to uncertainties and determine whether your initial estimates for the project and the risks and uncertainties were correct.

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Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis determines which variables have the most potential to affect your project. These variables are:

·         task duration,   task start time, success rate and costs

·         risks

·         lags between predecessors and successors

You can check how these variables affect the main project outcomes:

·         total project cost

·         project finish time

·         project duration

·         project success rate

The sensitivity chart displays sensitivities in descending order: variables whose uncertainties affect the project schedule the most will are placed at the top.  

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Crucial Tasks

The Crucial Tasks chart shows the results of the sensitivity analysis on a Gantt chart. Uncertainties whose duration has the most affect upon the total project duration are crucial tasks and are shown in red. By mitigating risks associated with crucial tasks, you can significantly improve your project’s chance of success.

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Success Rate 

Risky Project calculates every task’s success rate or chance of completion. The results are shown on the Success Rate Gantt chart using different colors. Tasks with high success rates are green, medium success rates are yellow, and low success rates are red. You can cancel tasks, if a risk with “Cancel Task” outcome occurs, or if a task has reached a project or task deadline.

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Input Tracking Data

You can add information about each task. This is entered as the percentage of work done at a specific date. RiskyProject recalculates and shows an updated duration projection on a chart.

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Analyze Results with Tracking

After you add tracking data, you can recalculate your project schedule. RiskyProject applies the updated duration and chance of occurrence for risks. You can view the new project schedule on the Tracking Gantt chart. The Baseline schedule is also shown in the chart, so you can assess how your original estimates are different from actual project performance.

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