Rate increase risks

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RiskGuru
Posts: 20
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:27 pm
Location: Toronto, ON

Rate increase risks

Post by RiskGuru »

I have applied 100% chance of rate increase, with lower and upper bounds. Lower being -5% and higher being +20%. However, when I hit calculate, the result reduces the time of the project and reduces the cost rather than the other way.
Intaver Support
Posts: 1005
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Rate increase risks

Post by Intaver Support »

From looking at the provided files there are a few issues.

First, the Rate Increase risk outcome was assigned to all the resources and globally. This double counts the risk so you must remove the global risk assignment.

Second, resources that are Material with a cost /use or Cost Type Resource with a cost, you can only use Fixed Cost Increase outcome type.
Another issue to consider is whether the risk is a risk event or is due to uncertainty. Both represent possible variances in project outcomes but are modelled differently as one represents manageable risk (risks in the risk register) and the other unmanageable (3 pt estimates). My suggestion is that the Common - Price Increase and Time Delays be modelled as uncertainties (they have 100% probability and impact most if not all activities and cost resources). However, if a rate risk has less than 100% probability it should be modelled using the Rate Increase risk outcome.
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com
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