Moderator: Intaver Support
Event chain methodology comes from the notion that regardless how well we develop project schedule something will happen which may dramatically change it. Identification and managing such events or event chains (when one event causes another event) is a focus of event chain methodology. Why do we focus on events, not continuous process for changing project environment? Because continuous problem with the project is possible to detect and fix early when problem just starts.
Another driving force behind event chain methodology is an attempt to mitigate negative effect of cognitive and motivational biases, which lead to many problems in project planning. In very many cases we intentionally on unintentionally create project schedule which cannot be implemented.
Here is briefly, how event chain methodology works:
1. Create schedule model using best-case estimate of duration. In other word we recommend to use estimation you comfortable with, which in most case will be optimistic. Why optimistic estimation? Because of a number of cognitive and motivational factors including planning fallacy or optimism bias, overconfidence, and rule of PI, we will do optimistic estimations anyway. In most cases it is impossible to prevent project manager from defining over-optimistic schedule, so we have to accept it.
2. Absolutely separately define list of events and event chain which their probabilities, impacts, and other parameters: all possible thing, which can occur, including chains of events. These events may affect tasks or resources. Why do we need to identify event separately (separate time, meeting, experts) from creation of schedule model? To avoid the situation, where our expectation about the project (cost, duration, and so on) would affect event identification. You can visualize these events using event chain diagrams.
3. Perform quantitative analysis and generate new schedule with taking to an account these risk events.
4. Repeat the analysis on a regular basic during a course of project to come up with moving target: project duration and cost. Event chain methodology will help automatically reassess probability and impact of event depending on how much is done and what actually happened in a project.
The focus of event chain methodology is managing event and event chain. If there is an overallocation of resources, in may trigger an event, which will make certain corrective actions, which lead to resource leveling.
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