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Risk Attributes for Quantitative Risk Analysis

Each risk assignment has the following information:
  • Risks can be assigned to Tasks or Resources
  • Risks are defined by the chance of occurrence (from 0% to 100%). The chance can be defined per task (by default) or per duration unit. For example, if there is a 30% chance that task can be restarted per day. If task duration is 2 days, the chance of the risk occurring per task is 60%. This chance calculation option is defined for all tasks and resources for the project in the Risk tab of the Options dialog box:

Quantitative Risk Analysis

Each risk has a different outcome type. Outcomes can be schedule and cost related and non-schedule related, which you can customize using Risk Outcome dialog (Risk menu). Standard schedule-related risk outcomes are shown in the table.

Quantitative Risk Analysis

  • The Result of outcome is related to the outcomes "Fixed cost increase", "Relative cost increase", "Fixed delay", and "Relative delay". It defines how much the duration or cost will be increased or reduced. Result of outcomes also used for non-schedule risks and is defined as a percentage. For example, risk outcome "Technology change" has outcome 20%. It also has a verbal definition that comes from Impact labels defined in Format Risk Labels dialog (see Format menu).
  • RiskyProject calculates Risk Impact for duration and cost as a result of sensitivity analysis and displays this in the Risk Register, Global Risk Assignment views and Risk Tabs for Tasks and Resources. Colors are used to indicate the level of correlation between the risk and project duration and cost.
  • Red indicates a strong correlation
  • Yellow a medium correlation
  • Green a weak or no correlation

Colors for threats are the opposite. Particular colors for the risk impact value depend on the risk tolerance defined in Format Risk Matrix dialog box.

One risk can have different outcomes or different results of outcomes. For example, if a risk occurs there is a 10% chance the task will restart, and 10% chance that the task will be cancelled.

The Moment of risk is defined by:

  • Start time of Risk occurrence;
  • Most likely Time of risk occurrence;
  • Finish Time of Risk occurrence
  • Uniform or triangular distributions

Quantitative Risk Analysis

Start, Most Likely, and Finish times are entered as a percentage of total task duration starting from the beginning of the task.
For example:

  • Distribution: Triangular
  • Start: 50%
  • Most likely: 80%
  • End: 100%

This description means that by default for A new task with duration 10 days risk would occur after 5th day, but most likely would occur on 8th day.

See also

Assigning local and global risks

Risks in RiskyProject

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