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About Calculation in RiskyProject

RiskyProject has two types of calculations:

  • Deterministic - The default calculation is automatically performed when you modify a project schedule. As this calculation occurs automatically, you do not need to press the Calculation button. This calculation uses the Base input parameters (duration, start time, lag) without calculating the effect of risk or uncertainty.
  • Probabilistic (Monte Carlo simulations) - Use this to calculate the project schedule and costs with uncertainties and risks.

Enabling or disabling automatic Monte Carlo simulations for small projects

  1. Click the Schedule tab. In the Settings and Options group, click Options. The Options dialog box opens.
  2. Click the Calculations tab.
  3. From the Default Calculation for Small Projects option box, select one of the two options:
    • Current Schedule Calculation only
    • Probabilistic Calculation (Monte Carlo simulations)
  4. Click OK. RiskyProject automatically determines which project is small based on your computer's performance and the size of the project

Running probabilistic calculations

Click the Calculate button. You may cancel the probabilistic calculation at any time; however, if the number of simulations performed is less than 20, no probabilistic results will be calculated.

  1. By default RiskyProject performs convergence monitoring. Simulations can be stopped when they convergence equals mean and standard deviation values defined in Schedule tab > Options > Calculation.
  2. Minimum number of simulations is 200.
  3. If you cancel a calculation after more than 20 simulations and generate results, use these results with caution as the number of simulations which have been run may be too small to provide an accurate portrayal of the project’s risks and uncertainties.
  4. If you try to perform Monte Carlo simulations without risks and uncertainties, simulations will not proceed in the same manner as when you define risk and uncertainties. Remember that uncertainties include a probabilistic calendar.

  5. See also

    RiskyProject Calculation Options
    Defining the number of simulations

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