Decision Analysis for Projects

The Vanguard System™ (Decision Tree Analysis Add-In)

Your project has a number of alternatives. During the course of a project, you can make different decisions which may significantly change the project. Moreover, your project is also affected but a number of risks and uncertainties.

  • What particular project scenario should be selected?
  • How will this selection be affected by risks and uncertainties?
  • What actions should be taken if something changes in the middle of the project?

This decision analysis solution for project schedules will help you answer these and other questions.

How does it work

You have project schedule, which is created in RiskyProject or imported from other project management software. This project schedule has a number of alternative scenarios.

So, RiskyProject converts the project schedule into a decision tree. Each activity within the project schedule becomes a node of the decision tree. If an activity has more than one successor, you can define it as a decision node, end node, or event chance node of the decision tree. If the activity is defined as a decision node, this means that, by the end of this activity, a decision will be made on what course of action will be taken. For event nodes, you can define probabilities associated with each branch.

To view a Decision Tree for this particular schedule, just launch Vanguard Studio using the Tools menu or click the Vanguard Studio toolbar button in RiskyProject. In Vanguard Studio, you can clearly see the preferable alternative based on cost or duration criteria:

More than just a decision tree

RiskyProject allows you to perform project scheduling while taking into account risk and uncertainties. If a project has uncertain task durations or costs, selecting viable project alternatives can become increasingly complex. RiskyProject and Vanguard Studio solve this problem by generating a decision tree based on results of a project risk analysis.

RiskyProject provides tracking of actual project performance. On each phase of the project, RiskyProject will compare projected and actual data, reassess probabilities of risk, recalculate the project schedule, and generate a new decision tree. It will give you an opportunity to analyze project alternatives and select the proper course of action during execution of the project.

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