RiskyProject uses tracking information for probabilistic calculations. The purpose of the calculation is to reassess the task An activity or job which has a start date and time, an end date and time, a duration, and other properties. A Project is comprised of tasks. duration Duration: The total span of working time required completing task or whole project. Task duration can be input in months, weeks, days, hours, and minutes, as it is specified in Options dialog box (Duration tab). Internally duration is calculated in hours. Duration is calculated using current calendar. and start and finish dates based on the actual progress. As the baseline The original project schedule (before calculation). Baselines are calculated without taking into account risks, uncertainties, and tracking information. RiskyProject uses only one project baseline. Baseline project schedules are shown in the Baseline Gantt view. In addition, the baseline can be shown together in the Result Gantt and Tracking Gantt views. It allows you to compare the calculated project schedule, which included risks, uncertainties, and tracking information, with the baseline schedule. project schedule the timing and sequence of task within a project. A schedule contains tasks with dependencies, as well as other project information. remains unchanged, you can compare your original estimates with the forecasted schedule.
Probabilistic Tracking calculations are performed in the following manner:
If task has tracking information, new forecasted task duration and finish times are calculated. You can see the results of this calculation are instantly plotted on the tracking chart as a green dotted. The task’s start time is actual start time entered in the tracking data.
The actual start time, forecasted task duration, and finish time are used for probabilistic calculations. If the percentage complete is greater than 0%, the Low, Base, and High durations are not used.
If the task has risks assigned to it (global or local), the chance of the risk A stochastic event that can be applied to tasks or resources and affects project schedules. Risks are defined by name, chance of occurrence, outcome, and time of occurrence. Risk can be global (for all tasks or resources in project) and local (for particular task or resource in project). Global risks can be added using the Risk View. Local risks can be added using the Task Information dialog box or the Resource will be recalculated based on the current time, when the risk occurred, and the task completion percentage.
If the percentage completed equals zero, all risks will be used with their original chances of occurrence.
If the percent completed equals 100, the chance of occurrence for all risks will be internally set to zero. Although the original chance of risk occurrence is not changed, it is important to note that the actual outcome of risks changes.
Example
Originally, the task had a duration of 10 days and there was a 20% chance that the task would be delayed 15% or 1.5 days. However, because of tracking information, the duration was forecasted to be 20 days. In this case, the chance of the risk occurrence will in recalculated internally and reduced. However, the delay will be recalculated based on forecasted duration and now equals 3 days (20 days * 15%)
See also
About Tracking
Enter Tracking Information