Event Chain Methodology and Monte Carlo Simulations

This forum includes discussion about project risk analysis and risk management theory: Monte Carlo simulations, Event Chain Methodology, schedule and cost risk analysis. Please submit questions and case studies about your experience with our project risk analysis software.

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Kevin Hunter
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Event Chain Methodology and Monte Carlo Simulations

Post by Kevin Hunter » Fri Dec 08, 2006 11:32 am

What is the difference between Event Chain Methodology and Monte Carlo simulations?

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Post by Intaver Support » Fri Dec 08, 2006 11:42 am

Event Chain Methodology is based on Monte Carlo Simulations and other quantitative methods, such as Bayesian methods. Event Chain Methodology is a method of modeling and analysis of complex business and technological process, were uncertainty are defined using event or event chains. Results of analysis are presented the same way as in Monte Carlo: statistical distributions of project cost, duration, and other problem parameters.
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MTC465
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Post by MTC465 » Fri Dec 08, 2006 2:58 pm

Can I define a statistical distribution for duration? For example normal distribution, mean 5, standard deviation 0.75?

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Post by Intaver Support » Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:31 pm

Yes, you can define task duration, start time, cost, and lag between predecessors and successors using a number statistical distributions. However you must ensure, that uncertainties defined in the distribution are due to different factors than the risks assigned to the same tasks.

To do it just go to task information dialog (double click on task ID) and than to do Distributions tab. You can even use Stat::Fit software to fit statistical distribution if you have empirical data.
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Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

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