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Defining Contingencies in RiskyProject
Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2016 3:44 pm
How can I define contingency buffer in RiskyProject?
Re: Defining Contingencies in RiskyProject
Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2016 3:53 pm
Contingencies are generally defined using confidence levels, that is percentiles or P values based on the results of the Monte Carlo simulation. For example a standard schedule contingency or margin is P80 or the finish date or duration in which the project will finish in at or less 80% of the time. For risk tolerant companies this value may be P70 for very risk averse, this value may be above P90.
You can quickly set up your Monte Carlo simulation results so that your contingency level is automatically displayed as the High results in the Analysis reports, such as the Project Summary for project results or Result Gantt for activity results.
To set contingency levels:
1. Open the Project Options > Calculations
2. In the Low and high time, duration, and cost are calculated based on: group, set the P values for low and high. In the example below, the Custom Percentiles option is selected and the P values are P30 for low and P80 for high. In this case we will be using P80 to calculate contingency.