Distribution for risk impact

This forum includes discussion about project risk analysis and risk management theory: Monte Carlo simulations, Event Chain Methodology, schedule and cost risk analysis. Please submit questions and case studies about your experience with our project risk analysis software.

Moderator: Intaver Support

Post Reply
Posts: 29
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 10:46 pm

Distribution for risk impact

Post by Jason » Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:05 pm

Is it possible to define a statistical distribution for risk impact? I have an example:

Risk: Financial Problems
Chance: 35:
Impact: Cost increase from $5,000 to $7,000 - normal distribution

Intaver Support
Posts: 847
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Distribution for risk impact

Post by Intaver Support » Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:16 pm

Defining statistical distribution for risk outcomes
1. Click the Risks tab. In the Risk Views group, click Risk Register.
2. Open the Risk Information dialog box.
3. Click the Probabilities and Outcomes tab for qualitative risk analysis (if you don'tr have project schedule) or Assign to tasks or resources for quantitative analysis
4. Right click on risk alternative ID and select Distribution of risk outcomes
5. Select the distribution from the Distribution list. If you select Undefined, the base value will be used for all iterations.
6. Define the distribution parameters. The Probability Density chart is automatically updated. You can adjust distribution parameters using the sliders.
7. If you use a custom or discrete distribution, a grid opens. The grid will allow you to define points (or intervals for discrete distributions) and associated with each point (interval) 8. If you select Normal or Lognormal, you must select the Low and High probability range (P1 and P99, P5 and P95 or P10 and P90). These are "cut-off" parameters; meaning that duration, cost, or start time cannot go beyond these values.

* For quantitative analysis you may also define statistical distribution using Global or local risk assignment views and and dialog boxes. For example in Global Risk Assignment you may click on Risk Assignment ID for the particular risk alternative and go to risk tab.
* To define statistical distribution for risk outcome you must have uncertainties in risk outcomes enabled. It can be done by clicking on Schedule tab > Options > Risk tab and then selecting Enable Statistical distribution for risk outcome.
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject

Post Reply