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What default setting should I have for the moment of Risk?
Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:22 am
What does the statistical distribution for moment of risk in the Project Options > Risk tab refer to and how should I set it?
Re: What default setting should I have for the moment of Risk?
Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:24 am
Normally when we defined risk events, we use probability and impacts. How likely is it to occur and what will happen if it does occur. However, risk events can also be defined by a 3rd parameter and that is if they do occur, when during a project will they occur. Got global or large tasks this parameter can be important especially if the consequence of a risk is that activities have to be repeated or cancelled. Why? The later during the progress of an activity a risk occurs, the more sunk costs will increase and if the risk requires that activities need to be restarted, cancelled etc. the more the risk event will cost in time and money.
Getting back to your question about the default setting for moment of risk should be uniform. This is the most neutral setting and have the least impact on your analysis when you do not know when the moment of risk is most likely to occur. However, if in activities that end with testing or some other expected result that is a pass/fail or similar, it is reasonable to consider to weight the moment of risk so that it can only occur at or close to the end of the task.