### Risk Analysis Results

Posted:

**Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:43 am**You have low, base, and high results (cost, duration, start and finish times) of the analysis on your data tables. What does it mean?

This forum includes discussions about project risk analysis software and project risk management software RiskyProject: theory, software features, best practices, possible problems, and user experience.

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/

Page **1** of **2**

Posted: **Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:43 am**

You have low, base, and high results (cost, duration, start and finish times) of the analysis on your data tables. What does it mean?

Posted: **Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:45 am**

Base result is associated in mean (statistical average) of results (start and finish times, duration, cost). Low results and high results are associated with maximum/minimum P1/P99, P5/P95, or P10/P90 results of statistical analysis.

Default data is P10/P90. You can change these default. Just go to Tools-> Options and make a selection.

Default data is P10/P90. You can change these default. Just go to Tools-> Options and make a selection.

Posted: **Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:50 am**

Could you explain p10 and p90 and how its calculated?

Posted: **Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:52 am**

P10 is 10th percentile. Here is how percentile is defined in our glossary:

A value on a scale of zero to one hundred, that indicates that percent of a distribution that is equal to or below it. A value in the 95th percentile is a value equal to or better than 95 percent of other values. RiskyProject presents percentiles deviation as part of results of Monte Carlo simulations for project and for the tasks. Notation P95 indicate 95th percentile.

Basically, all samples associated with duration, start and finish time, and cost are sorted from lowest to highest. Then RiskyProject determines index, associated with for example 10th percent of data. If array of data has for example 300 items, this index will be 30. So 30th data sample in the sorted array is P10.

A value on a scale of zero to one hundred, that indicates that percent of a distribution that is equal to or below it. A value in the 95th percentile is a value equal to or better than 95 percent of other values. RiskyProject presents percentiles deviation as part of results of Monte Carlo simulations for project and for the tasks. Notation P95 indicate 95th percentile.

Basically, all samples associated with duration, start and finish time, and cost are sorted from lowest to highest. Then RiskyProject determines index, associated with for example 10th percent of data. If array of data has for example 300 items, this index will be 30. So 30th data sample in the sorted array is P10.

Posted: **Sun Mar 26, 2006 10:00 am**

Could you just clarify. Does this mean that the p10 and p90 values each have a 10% chance of occuring? Does the range of possible values between the two have an 80% chance of occuring?

Posted: **Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:46 pm**

The values between p10 and p90 represent 80% of the uncertainty for the variable that you are looking at.

Intaver Support

Intaver Support

Posted: **Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:48 pm**

What is the max no. of risks that you can use with RiskyProject. How many do you recommend?

Posted: **Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:49 pm**

RiskyPRoject can handle up to 3000, however we don't recommend to enter that many as it is hard to analyze them.

Posted: **Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:00 pm**

It would be nice if you had a project performance chart (percent work done) for the summary tasks and the project

Posted: **Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:02 pm**

This is planned for our Fall 2007 release of RiskyProject. We are building a couple of distinct views actuals/accruals for this release.

Posted: **Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:46 pm**

I meauser my risk as the chance it will occur during a period of time. How do I define it. For example, there is a 10% chance that the risk will occur over the period of a year during 1 year.

WD

WD

Posted: **Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:50 pm**

Go to Options -> Risk and define the risk chance calculation. The chance can be absolute or relative.

Posted: **Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:53 pm**

OK thanks. One more question

Is it possible to define different risk types in the same project?

Is it possible to define different risk types in the same project?

Posted: **Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:54 pm**

No, the risk types must be all the same.

Posted: **Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:55 pm**

Thanks I think I am starting to get the hang of it. Risk analysis, risk outcomes, risk types ...