Page 1 of 2

Risk Analysis Results

Posted: Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:43 am
by Robert
You have low, base, and high results (cost, duration, start and finish times) of the analysis on your data tables. What does it mean?

re: Risk Analysis Results

Posted: Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:45 am
by Intaver Support
Base result is associated in mean (statistical average) of results (start and finish times, duration, cost). Low results and high results are associated with maximum/minimum P1/P99, P5/P95, or P10/P90 results of statistical analysis.

Default data is P10/P90. You can change these default. Just go to Tools-> Options and make a selection.

What is P10/P90?

Posted: Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:50 am
by Robert
Could you explain p10 and p90 and how its calculated?

Posted: Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:52 am
by Intaver Support
P10 is 10th percentile. Here is how percentile is defined in our glossary:

A value on a scale of zero to one hundred, that indicates that percent of a distribution that is equal to or below it. A value in the 95th percentile is a value equal to or better than 95 percent of other values. RiskyProject presents percentiles deviation as part of results of Monte Carlo simulations for project and for the tasks. Notation P95 indicate 95th percentile.

Basically, all samples associated with duration, start and finish time, and cost are sorted from lowest to highest. Then RiskyProject determines index, associated with for example 10th percent of data. If array of data has for example 300 items, this index will be 30. So 30th data sample in the sorted array is P10.

Just a clarification

Posted: Sun Mar 26, 2006 10:00 am
by Robert
Could you just clarify. Does this mean that the p10 and p90 values each have a 10% chance of occuring? Does the range of possible values between the two have an 80% chance of occuring?


Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:46 pm
by Intaver Support
The values between p10 and p90 represent 80% of the uncertainty for the variable that you are looking at.

Intaver Support

What is the maximum number of risks?

Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:48 pm
by Robert
What is the max no. of risks that you can use with RiskyProject. How many do you recommend?

Max number of risks

Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:49 pm
by Intaver Support
RiskyPRoject can handle up to 3000, however we don't recommend to enter that many as it is hard to analyze them.

Summary charts

Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:00 pm
by kp56
It would be nice if you had a project performance chart (percent work done) for the summary tasks and the project

Summary charts

Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:02 pm
by Intaver Support
This is planned for our Fall 2007 release of RiskyProject. We are building a couple of distinct views actuals/accruals for this release.

inputting risks

Posted: Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:46 pm
by WayneDavidson
I meauser my risk as the chance it will occur during a period of time. How do I define it. For example, there is a 10% chance that the risk will occur over the period of a year during 1 year.


Defing risk chance type

Posted: Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:50 pm
by Intaver Support
Go to Options -> Risk and define the risk chance calculation. The chance can be absolute or relative.

Defining risky types

Posted: Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:53 pm
by WayneDavidson
OK thanks. One more question

Is it possible to define different risk types in the same project?

Defining risk types in a project

Posted: Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:54 pm
by Intaver Support
No, the risk types must be all the same.


Posted: Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:55 pm
by WayneDavidson
Thanks I think I am starting to get the hang of it. Risk analysis, risk outcomes, risk types ...