Custom distributions for Monte Carlo
Moderator: Intaver Support
Custom distributions for Monte Carlo
I noticed that you also have custom distributions in additional to all the others. We use triangular for all of our schedule risk analysis, but are looking at whether to use any of the others listed.

 Posts: 847
 Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am
Re: Custom distributions for Monte Carlo
As part of Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis, you must define a statistical distribution that defines the probability density function (PDF) of you estimates. All of the distributions that we provide are considered continuous distributions and they represent all possible values between the low and high boundaries. Custom distributions are generally used when you have historical data from previous projects with similar activities that you enter discrete values for each interval between the low and high estimates. Creating a custom distribution requires entering in intervals (as a percentage between 1100) and how often a value for that interval will occur. In the example below we have duration estimate of 47 days with 9 intervals each with a percentage that the activity will be completed during that interval. The sum of the percentages of each bin should equal 100% probability.
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com