Probabilistic Calendar For Monte Carlo Simulations

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CeRIM
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Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 4:05 am

Probabilistic Calendar For Monte Carlo Simulations

Post by CeRIM » Mon Oct 19, 2015 2:20 pm

I'm looking for the way to define probabilistic calendar in RiskyProject.

Intaver Support
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Re: Probabilistic Calendar For Monte Carlo Simulations

Post by Intaver Support » Mon Oct 19, 2015 2:31 pm

Yes we support probabilistic calendars. Typically, they are used to model weather events or other phenomena that restrict or change working days or hours during Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis. As part of this process, you need to create one or more project calendars that have for example, non-working days due to a weather event. Therefore, if you are going to working in a northern sub arctic area where there is a spring breakup period that occurs sometime in April-May that 1 in 5 years causes a total shutdown for x days/weeks above the normal that models this and run it 20% probability while running the standard the other 80% of the time.

You sent probabilistic calendars in Schedule > Settings and Options > Project Settings. The Probabilistic Project Calendar list includes all of the calendars defined in the current project. Beside each calendar you can enter in the chance that they will be used during Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis. In the example below, we have modelled 3 different scenarios for working time during the spring breakup, each with a different probability of occurring.

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