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Percentile Options for Monte Carlo Simulations
Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:35 am
How do the Calculation Options for Low, Base and High affect the Monte Carlo simulations? Do they affect how the low and high estimates (inputs) are interpreted? For example, the default setting appears to be P10 and P90. If I have a task with a 10 day most likely and add 8 for low and 15 for high. Does 8 days represent that the task could be completed in 8 days 10% of the time, but there is still a possibility it could be lower (e.g. 7 days?)
Re: Percentile Options for Monte Carlo Simulations
Posted: Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:41 am
No, the Monte Carlo calculation settings on control what values are shown in the risk analysis result views. In RiskyProject, in the risk analysis views you will see columns for Low, Mean, and High. The Calculation option is indicting what the P value from the Monte Carlo analysis represent for Low and High duration, costs, start time, finish time, etc.
For example, if you would like to set schedule margins at P80 for duration, you can set this up in the Calculation Options so that the P value is displayed automatically for Project and task results.