Percentile Options for Monte Carlo Simulations

General discussion and questions about project risk management and risk analysis software RiskyProject. Includes discussion on how to perform efficient project risk analysis using our software.

Moderator: Intaver Support

Post Reply
Google
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2006 10:11 pm
Location: Toronto

Percentile Options for Monte Carlo Simulations

Post by Google » Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:35 am

How do the Calculation Options for Low, Base and High affect the Monte Carlo simulations? Do they affect how the low and high estimates (inputs) are interpreted? For example, the default setting appears to be P10 and P90. If I have a task with a 10 day most likely and add 8 for low and 15 for high. Does 8 days represent that the task could be completed in 8 days 10% of the time, but there is still a possibility it could be lower (e.g. 7 days?)

Intaver Support
Posts: 992
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Percentile Options for Monte Carlo Simulations

Post by Intaver Support » Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:41 am

No, the Monte Carlo calculation settings on control what values are shown in the risk analysis result views. In RiskyProject, in the risk analysis views you will see columns for Low, Mean, and High. The Calculation option is indicting what the P value from the Monte Carlo analysis represent for Low and High duration, costs, start time, finish time, etc.

For example, if you would like to set schedule margins at P80 for duration, you can set this up in the Calculation Options so that the P value is displayed automatically for Project and task results.

Image
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

Post Reply