Statistical distribution for duration

General discussion and questions about project risk management and risk analysis software RiskyProject. Includes discussion on how to perform efficient project risk analysis using our software.

Moderator: Intaver Support

Post Reply
Kathy
Posts: 14
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 11:06 am
Location: London, UK

Statistical distribution for duration

Post by Kathy » Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:59 am

As part of our Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis, as a first draft we are not yet requiring our team members to provide estimates for low and high duration. We want to import our schedule from Microsoft Project and quickly add uncertainties to all of the activities. I seem to remember that you can do this in RiskyProject, but I can’t find it.

Intaver Support
Posts: 847
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Statistical distribution for duration

Post by Intaver Support » Fri Sep 04, 2015 10:11 am

In RiskyProject you can quickly add uncertainty to your tasks. Uncertainties are expressed as statistical distribution and will be based as an input in Monte Carlo simulation process. These statistical distributions will be used for task duration and task costs. We recommend as a first step develop levels of uncertainty each with coefficients used to calculate Low and High estimates. For example, you can If you have activities that are very routine and have very little uncertainty, they can be characterized as Very Low risk with coefficients for Low and High . 95 and 1.1 respectively.

You can do this for all your activities in Microsoft Project and when you import it into RiskyProject, this will allow you to quickly select specific risk groups to apply the uncertainty.
To apply the uncertainties to groups of activities. Select the tasks, right-click on the Task ID of one of the selected tasks and click Set Low High Duration from the shortcut menu. You can enter the coefficients you have defined as well as assign a statistical distribution type to the group.

Image
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

Post Reply