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What is the best distribution to use for schedule duration?
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2015 3:03 pm
When you add low and high durations to an activity, what type of distribution is the best?
What is the best distribution to use for schedule duration
Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2015 4:39 pm
In reality, there is no “Best” distribution to use for schedule or cost risk analysis. The statistical distribution for any parameter (cost, duration etc) should be the one that best fits your data.
If this data does exist for particular type of activities, then you can select the distribution which best fits your data or you can create a custom distribution. However, in reality, most of our users do not have this data available for the type of activity. In these cases, we suggest using Triangular statistical distribution as the default. Triangular distributions only require that you provide Best Case, Most Likely, and Worst Case values without requiring any additional parameters. In our experience, triangular distributions are used in 90% of schedule risk analysis and to a lesser degree in cost risk analysis (as the this data is more readily available.)