If you have good historical statistical data that is analogous to a
particular in your project, we recommend that you use these data to
model uncertainty in your project as opposed to risk events. Be
aware of double-counting risk and uncertainty as most of the
uncertainty in a project is due to the probability of risk events
To define uncertainties:
- Define a 3-point estimate for any of task parameters: cost,
income, duration, and start time. 3 points estimates for work will
be calculated automatically based on uncertainty in duration. You
may also define 3 points estimates for the lag.
- After you define 3-points estimates, a statistical distribution
will be assigned. You may change the default statistical
distribution for the duration, cost, income, and start time
parameters in Distributions tab of Task Information dialog box.
The meaning of low, base, and high data depends on the statistical
distribution defined in the Distributions tab of the Task
Information dialog box.
Adding 3-point estimates
Assigning Low and High Estimates for Duration and Cost for Group of Tasks
Defining task distributions