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Calculating and Reassessing tasks using tracking data

RiskyProject uses tracking information for probabilistic calculations. The purpose of the calculation is to reassess the task duration, start, and finish dates based on the actual progress. As the deterministic current project schedule remains unchanged, you can compare your original estimates with the forecasted schedule.

If a task has tracking information, new forecasted task duration and finish times are calculated. The results of this calculation are instantly plotted on the tracking chart as a green rectangle. The task's start time is actual start time entered in the tracking data.

The actual start time, forecasted task duration, and finish time are used for probabilistic calculations. If the percentage complete is greater than 0%, uncertainties in remaining duration are calculated using one of two methods:

1. If you enter percent completed, but did not enter remaining duration, original low and high duration will be used to calculate remaining duration. RiskyProject project will calculate deterministic projected duration based on percent completed and status date. Then on each iteration RiskyProject will calculate duration based on original statistical distribution. Duration for task in progress on each iteration will be extrapolated based on projected deterministic duration.

Example: Originally, a task had a duration of 10 days (low duration 8 days, high duration 12 days: +- 20%). After two days only 10% task is completed. Deterministic projected duration will be 20 days. As a result of the analysis, the updated duration will now be between 16 and 24 days (+- 20% of projected duration).
2. If you enter the statistical distribution for the remaining duration and percent completed, remaining duration will be taken from the statistical distribution and added to the duration of the completed portion of the task. Original statistical distribution for duration will be ignored.

Example: Originally, a task had a duration of 10 days (low duration 8 days, high duration 12 days: +- 20%). After two days only 10% task is completed. Duration of the completed portion of the task is 2 days. Remaining duration is defined using triangular statistical distribution (min 1 days, most likely 2 days, and max 3 days). As a result of the analysis, the updated duration will now be between 3 and 5 days.

If the task has risks assigned to it (global or local), the chance of the risk is recalculated based on the current time, when the risk occurred, and the task completion percentage.

• If the percentage completed equals zero, all risks are used with their original chances of occurrence.
• If the percent completed equals 100, the chance of occurrence for all risks is internally set to zero. Although the original chance of risk occurrence is not changed, it is important to note that the actual outcome of risks changes.