Calculating and Reassessing tasks using tracking
data
RiskyProject uses tracking information for probabilistic calculations. The
purpose of the calculation is to reassess the task duration, start, and finish
dates based on the actual progress. As the deterministic current project
schedule remains unchanged, you can compare your original estimates with the
forecasted schedule.
If a task has tracking information, new forecasted task duration and finish
times are calculated. The results of this calculation are instantly plotted on
the tracking chart as a green rectangle. The task’s start time is actual start
time entered in the tracking data.
The actual start time, forecasted task duration, and finish time are used for
probabilistic calculations. If the percentage complete is greater than 0%,
uncertainties in remaining duration are calculated using one of two methods:
- If you enter percent completed, but did not enter remaining duration,
original low and high duration will be used to calculate remaining duration.
RiskyProject project will calculate deterministic projected duration based on
percent completed and status date. Then on each iteration RiskyProject will
calculate duration based on original statistical distribution. Duration for task
in progress on each iteration will be extrapolated based on projected
deterministic duration.
Example: Originally, a task had duration of 10 days (low
duration 8 days, high duration 12 days: +- 20%). After two days only 10% task is
completed. Deterministic projected duration will be 20 days. As a result of
analysis duration will be between 16 and day 24 (+- 20% of projected duration).
- If you enter statistical distribution for remaining duration and percent
completed, remaining duration will be taken from the statistical distribution
and added to the duration of completed portion of the task. Original statistical
distribution for duration will be ignored.
Example: Originally, a task had duration of 10 days (low
duration 8 days, high duration 12 days: +- 20%). After two days only 10% task is
completed. Duration of the completed portion of task is 2 days. Remaining
duration is defined using triangular statistical distribution (min 1 days, most
likely 2 days, and max 3 days). As a result of analysis duration will be between
3 days and 5 days
If the task has risks assigned to it (global or local), the chance of the risk
is recalculated based on the current time, when the risk occurred, and the task
completion percentage.
- If the percentage completed equals zero, all risks are used with their original
chances of occurrence.
- If the percent completed equals 100, the chance of occurrence for all risks is
internally set to zero. Although the original chance of risk occurrence is not
changed, it is important to note that the actual outcome of risks changes.
See also
Tracking Performance
Tracking Results
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