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Calculate and Reassess Tasks Using Tracking Data
RiskyProject
uses tracking information for probabilistic calculations. The purpose
of the calculation is to reassess the task duration, start, and finish
dates based on the actual progress. As the baseline project schedule
remains unchanged, you can compare your original estimates with the
forecasted schedule.
Probabilistic
Tracking calculations are performed in the following manner:
·
If task has tracking information, new forecasted task
duration and finish times are calculated. You can see the results of
this calculation are instantly plotted on the tracking chart as a
green dotted line. The task’s start time is actual start time
entered in the tracking data.
·
The actual start time, forecasted task duration, and
finish time are used for probabilistic calculations. If the percentage
complete is greater than 0%, the Low, Base, and High durations are not
used.
·
If the task has risks assigned to it (global or local),
the chance of the risk is recalculated based on the current time, when
the risk occurred, and the task completion percentage.
o
If the percentage completed equals zero, all risks are
used with their original chances of occurrence.
o
If the percent completed equals 100, the chance of
occurrence for all risks is internally set to zero. Although the
original chance of risk occurrence is not changed, it is important to
note that the actual outcome of risks changes.
Example
Originally, a task had a duration of 10 days and
there was a 20% chance that the task would be delayed 15% or 1.5 days.
However, because of tracking information, the duration was forecasted
to be 20 days. In this case, the chance of the risk occurrence is
recalculated internally and reduced. However, the delay is
recalculated based on forecasted duration and now equals 3 days (20
days * 15%)
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