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Risk Properties
Risks have the following properties:
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Risks can be assigned to Tasks or Resources
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Risks are defined by the chance of occurrence (from 0% to 100%). The chance can be defined per task (by default) or per duration unit. For example, if there is a 30% chance that task can be restarted per day. If task duration is 2 days, the chance of the risk occurring per task is 60%.
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This chance calculation option is defined for all tasks and resources for the project in the Risk tab of the Options dialog
box
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Each risk has a different outcome, as shown in the table
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Outcome
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Description
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No
Impact
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This
is for information only and has no impact on project schedule
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Relative
Delay
Fixed
Delay
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Durations
will be expanded in the period, defined in the Result
field regardless of, when the risk occurs. If the Result
is negative, the task duration will be reduced.
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Relative
Increase Cost
Fixed
Cost Increase
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Task
costs are increased by the amount, defined in the field Result
regardless of when the risk occurs. If the Result is
negative, costs are reduced.
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Restart
Task
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Tasks
are restarted from the moment the risk occurs. As a result, the
task duration is increased.
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End
Task
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Tasks
are successfully completed when the risk occurs. As a result,
the task duration is reduced.
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Cancel
Task
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Tasks
are canceled when the risk occurs. As a result, the task
duration is reduced and the task is marked as canceled.
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Cancel
Task + all successors
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Tasks
and all its successors are canceled when the risk occurs. As a
result, the task duration is reduced and the task and all its
successors are marked as canceled.
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The Result of outcome is related to the outcomes “Fixed cost increase”, “Relative cost increase”, “Fixed delay”, and “Relative delay”. It defines how much the duration or cost will be increased or reduced.
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RiskyProject calculates Risk Exposures for duration and cost as a result of Sensitivity analysis and present as within Global Risk views. Red for risk exposure means there is a strong correlation between the risk and project duration/cost. Yellow means that there is a medium correlation between the risk and the project duration/cost. Green means there is a weak or no correlation between the risk and project duration/cost. Use Risk exposure to view the most critical risks
· The Moment of risk is defined by
· Start time of Risk occurrence;
· Most likely Time of risk occurrence;
· Finish Time of Risk occurrence
· Uniform or triangular distributions
One risk can have different outcomes or different results of outcomes. For example, if a risk occurs there is a 10% chance the task will restart, and 10% chance that the task will be canceled. To define a risk with alternate outcomes, use the same risk name for the consecutive items. RiskyProject will automatically recognize that this is a discrete outcome of the same risk. Each outcome will be given a number (starting at 1) and all will be colored green in the Risk Alternative column (read only).
Start, Most Likely, and Finish times are entered as a percentage of total task duration starting from beginning of the task.
For example:
· Start Time = 15%
· Most Likely Time = 55%
· Finish Time = 90%
· Distribution is triangular
Tips:
· Risky Project will flag with pink shading any alternative outcomes whose sum is greater than 100%. Results of calculation will be incorrect.
· A full list of risk properties can be found in the Appendix.
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