Project Decision and Risk Analysis

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Project Risk Management and Decision Analysis: Articles and White Papers 

Making Right Decisions in IT Project Management

Practical Recipes

Decision analysis can be very efficient if analytical tools are used not from time to time, but as a part of the workflow or the process. Decision analysis process is developed based on extensive research and proven to be an effective way to improve the quality of decisions. The process starts with the decision framing, which includes identification of a problem or opportunity, assessment of a business situation, generation of alternatives, and identification of risks and uncertainties. The next step is modeling the situation. Using the mathematical model quantitative analysis can be preformed to determine which alternative or strategy can bring better results based on selected criteria. The final step is making decision on course of action, allocating resources, and implementing the plan. The process can be repeated to correct decision if new information has become available.

Comprehensive, continuous, and consistent process will definitely help with making strategic decisions: making major investment, starting using a new product, selecting a major partner, or choosing a development platform. But what about day-to-day decisions that project managers are facing all the time? The answer is that project manager must always remember about few simple rules of decision analysis regardless of how important is the decision: 

1. Always remember and think about most important potential mental traps in project management and try to avoid them while making this particular decision.

2. Always try to properly understand the problem or opportunity by answering five simple questions:

a. What do you want to achieve?

b. What is the business situation: what can be done and what cannot be done?

c. How can you measure the success of the process or activity?

d. What alternatives do you have? Always remember “No alternatives, no Decisions”.

e. What are the uncertainties pertaining to this particular business situation?

3. Use quantitative methods as needed. These methods could be as advanced as you can properly interpret, but always directly related to the problem or opportunity.


 

Psychological Traps

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